Gold in India is seeing fresh highs: as of September 2025, 24-carat gold is trading near ₹1,17,500 per 10 g amid global and domestic tailwinds. The million-rupee question for many investors: could gold reach ₹2 lakh per 10 g within the next five years? Let’s explore what’s driving the rally, what could hold it back, and what realistic scenarios look like.
What’s Fueling the Rally?
Several factors are driving gold’s recent surge:
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Monetary easing & weak dollar: With talk of the Federal Reserve easing its monetary stance, the U.S. dollar may weaken — a favourable backdrop for gold globally.
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Strong domestic demand: In India, cultural affinity, weddings/festivals and investment-demand keep gold in high demand despite high prices.
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Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: Tensions, inflation concerns, and global debt burdens bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Can It Reach ₹2 Lakh? What the Forecasts Say
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The Trade Brains article outlines a projection where gold could move toward ₹1.63 lakh to ₹1.95 lakh per 10 g over the next five years under current drivers.
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Other sources suggest even a broader range: some analysts say it could climb to ₹1.40 lakh-₹2.25 lakh per 10 g in similar time-frames.
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A projection to ₹2 lakh is plausible but not guaranteed — it depends heavily on how monetary policy, currency and global demand evolve.
Key Risks & Moderating Factors
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Affordability & demand constraints: As prices rise, jewellery demand or mass-market consumption may soften, especially in India.
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Monetary policy reversal: If interest rates rise again or inflation moderates strongly, the impetus for gold could weaken.
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Currency/Import dynamics: India imports most of its gold. Rupee strength or higher import duties could dampen domestic upside.
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Valuation/future growth expectations: Past performance does not guarantee future returns. High growth expectations carry risk.
Implications for Investors
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Gold remains a core diversification asset, particularly for hedging inflation or systemic risk.
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If you believe the bullish thesis (weak dollar, inflation, safe-haven demand) holds, then participation in gold makes sense — whether via physical gold, ETFs, SGBs (for Indian investors) or other vehicles.
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However, don’t rely on gold alone seeing a leap to ₹2 lakh — set realistic expectations (e.g., ₹1.5-1.8 lakh) and treat higher targets as upside.
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Stay disciplined: consider maintaining gold as a portion of your portfolio (e.g., 5-10%), rather than over-allocating in search of dramatic gains.
Conclusion
Yes — under favourable conditions, 10 g of gold could approach ~₹2 lakh in the next five years. But more likely is a range somewhere in the ₹1.6-₹2 lakh band, depending on how the global and domestic factors align. For now, gold’s role as a hedging and diversification asset remains strong, and investors would do well to treat any steep upside as a bonus rather than a baseline guarantee.